South freeze and drought continue to increase prices of bulk agricultural products

With the further development of disaster weather, the market psychology of domestic bulk agricultural products is rapidly changing, and prices of corn, wheat and rice have begun to rise.

According to the Futures Daily News on January 19, at present, many southern provinces and regions in China are suffering from freezing rain, and most of the northern regions, especially the main winter wheat producing areas, are experiencing dry weather that has not been encountered for decades, and some regions have exceeded 100 days. Rainfall. With the further development of disaster weather, the market psychology of domestic bulk agricultural products is rapidly changing, and prices of corn, wheat and rice have begun to rise.

According to the data released by the National Defense Administration, since the beginning of October last year, the rainfall in the southern part of North China, Huanghuai, and Jianghuai has been severely low, and the drought conditions in the winter wheat region of the Huanghuai-Huai River have emerged and continued to develop. Up to now, the area affected by drought has reached 60.39 million mu. According to the meteorological department's forecast, the precipitation in most parts of China's Huang-Huai-Hai region this spring may still be on the low side. With the spring temperatures rising and the demand for crop water increasing, the drought situation is more severe. On January 12th, Premier Wen Jiabao made important instructions on the drought situation in the northern winter wheat region, demanding the rapid mobilization of various forces and adopting comprehensive measures to do a good job of drought relief. Vice Premier Hui Liangyu has also twice occurred in Huanghuaihai region. Drought made important instructions. At present, the development of drought conditions mainly presents five major characteristics: First, most winter wheat regions have severely low precipitation. Second, the duration of drought in winter wheat regions is long. Third, the drought regions are very concentrated. Fourth, drinking water is still difficult in some old drought regions in the north. Fifth, the situation of water supply in some cities is still severe.

According to data released by the Henan Meteorological Bureau, since the beginning of last October, the average precipitation in the province has fallen by 86% over the same period of the previous year. This is the least precipitation year since 1953. The area affected by drought in the province has reached 16.23 million mu, of which 1.71 million hectares of heavy drought. In Shandong Province, 59.73 million mu of farmland has been affected by drought, and 240,000 people are temporarily drinking water. If there is still no effective precipitation before the Spring Festival, the probability of meteorological drought in the province will reach 60 years. Zaozhuang, Tai'an, Laiwu, Linyi, Rizhao, Liaocheng Once it reaches 100 years, Heze and Jining will meet once in 200 years. The “Analysis of Drought Situation in Hebei Province in the Near Future” published by Hebei Agricultural Meteorology Center shows that since October 25 last year, most of the wheat areas in Hebei Province had no effective precipitation. However, due to widespread winter irrigation, soil moisture in most wheat fields is suitable. The wheat fields that had not been flooded with winter water and had less precipitation in August-October last year showed mild drought, mainly distributed in the southern part of Gansu and the eastern part of Luzhou. As a whole, there was no significant impact on the safe winter weather of winter wheat. The data released by the Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of Hebei Province showed that the drought in Hebei province was seriously affected by the recent low rainfall. At present, the growth of 515 million mu of winter wheat has been seriously affected. There are 377,000 people and 129.5 million (only) large livestock have difficulty drinking water due to drought.

Judging from the current situation, most parts of northern China have entered the winter season, temperatures are generally below zero, and winter wheat has stopped growing. Dry weather temporarily does not cause excessive damage to wheat growth, but if the dry weather continues to develop Due to the fact that local water sources have been partially consumed, the degree of drought will rapidly escalate, the area affected by crops will increase significantly, and the drought situation will become even more severe. In addition, the frozen weather in many southern provinces will also cause damage to crops such as rapeseed and will affect the transportation of grain and oil commodities. By then, the domestic grain and oil market may experience greater psychological changes, and it is difficult to avoid the sharp increase in agricultural product prices.

Liu Xianzhen, a wheat expert from Henan Xinxiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the Futures Daily that due to the superimposition of freeze-dried soil, yellow seedlings have appeared in some areas of wheat. However, most of the wheat areas in Henan are in the plain area with good irrigation conditions, such as 60%-70 in Xinxiang. % of the wheat fields have been watered, and the growth of winter wheat has been temporarily impaired. However, it is worth noting that due to the high cost of irrigation, if the drought does not improve in the later period, it will aggravate farmers' concerns about production costs. Wang Hongfei, manager of Henan Fengyuan Grain and Oil Trading Company, said that the current prices of wheat and corn have stopped falling, and people are worried about the late wheat output. If the weather in the “South Frost and North Drought” continues, the price of grain and oil will rise.

Tang Qingxia, an analyst at Jiangxi Ricky Futures' agricultural products market, believes that before the Spring Festival, the consumption of agricultural products has turned to be buoyant, driving the price of agricultural products to pick up. The recent ice and snow disasters in the south have created new stimuli for price increases. Ice and snow disaster weather increases the logistics costs on the one hand, and on the other hand, it easily leads to waterlogging of farmland and affects the growth of rapeseed roots. Deeper snow accumulations can easily lead to the collapse of agricultural facilities.

"The purchase price of corn has increased from 0.945 yuan / kg to 0.965-0.97 yuan / kg, the library price of 1.02 yuan / kg, the wheat purchase price has also increased a lot." Hebei Hengshui Peace State Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager Manager Jingtao told reporters that the impact of dry weather on grain and oil prices is increasing, and later on there will be a serious impact on wheat production and prices. According to him, in the next 10 to 20 days, there may still be no effective rainfall in the local area.

In recent years, the frequency of natural disasters in China has increased and the risks borne by agricultural production have increased. After seven consecutive years of agricultural product harvest in China, the market supply and demand pattern is still tightly balanced. Under the situation of “Southern Drought and North Drought”, the situation of agricultural product supply this year is not optimistic.