In the second half of the year, the main food prices stabilized and year-on-year gains fell.

According to the supply and demand gap, price elasticity, and production cycle characteristics of major foods in the second half of the year, we expect that domestic food prices will stabilize after the middle of this year, hog prices remain relatively high at the end of the year, and the absolute price of vegetables is relatively stable. In the second half of the year, food prices were basically stable from the base index, with year-on-year gains falling.

First, grain supply and demand are tightly balanced and basically balanced, and grain prices tend to stabilize in the second half of the year.

The supply of food has improved. Supply and demand have been balanced from last year's tight balance to this year's basic balance. This year's domestic summer food will enjoy a bumper harvest. The three provinces of southwestern China suffered from severe drought and reduced grain production during the Spring Festival last year. This year, the climate conditions in the southwest region were generally good, achieving a recovery and production increase, which laid the foundation for a bumper harvest, while winter wheat production increased production for eight consecutive years. This year, the enthusiasm of farmers to plant early rice is higher, and the Ministry of Agriculture expects the country’s early rice planting area to be more than 8850 million mu, an increase of more than 160 million mu from the previous year. The overall situation of early rice this year is generally better than in the previous year.

From the perspective of food gap, with the harvest of summer grain and autumn grain, after the middle of this year, the supply and demand of grain will also shift from last year's summer grain output reduction to this year's supply and demand balance. Since the gap between supply and demand is relatively small, the absolute price of grain will remain stable. Considering that the carryover factor continues to decrease, the year-on-year increase will fall.

Specifically, from December 2007 to April 2011, the food price rose by an average of 0.78% from the previous quarter. Assuming that the food price in the eighth month of the previous month will remain at 0.8%, the year-on-year increase in food prices will fall back to 10.7%. We forecast that the food price increase will not exceed 0.5% in the second half of this year, and the year-on-year increase in food prices in December will fall to around 8%.

Second, the increase in the price of pork in the second half of the year fell, and the inflection point of the weak spider web model will come.

From the perspective of pork supply and demand gap, with the completion of a new round of production cycle of pork, pork supply will effectively increase, and the situation of tight pork supply and demand is expected to get better.

The profit period from pig farming is generally between one and a half to two years, and the highest point is usually about one year into profitability. In late July last year, the ratio of pig food in 22 provinces and cities nationwide rebounded to 6.14, crossing the breakeven line of 6:1. Therefore, from June to July of this year, pork supply is expected to increase, according to the remaining gilts to the first batch of finishing pigs. Slaughter breeding laws will provide a substantial increase in pork supply by the end of this year.

Without considering the addition of gilts, the growth cycle of pigs from gestation to finishing pigs is 325 days. From June last year to May of this year, exactly 11 months, the supply of pork will begin to increase significantly in the middle of this year.

According to the slaughter of gilts from the first batch of finishing pigs to the first batch of fattening pigs, a total of 530 days (18 months) will be required. By December of this year, the peak supply of pigs will be formed.

From the perspective of price elasticity, the price increase of live pigs should be weaker than in 2007. In the middle of this year, as the fattening pigs went on the market and the pork supply increased, the increase in pork prices should fall and the absolute price should remain high. By the end of this year, according to the breeding rules of keeping gilts to the first batch of fattening pigs, pork supply will be completed by the end of this year. With a large-scale increase, the absolute price of pork will reach the highest point. Under the situation that pork consumption in our country has remained relatively stable, the turning point of the weak cobweb model for domestic pork prices in the second half to the end of the year is expected to come.

Specifically, the peak of the year-on-year increase in pork prices will occur in June this year. In July this year, the possibility of a substantial rise in the price of live pigs under the supply increase is less likely. Due to the base number, the year-on-year increase will fall back. Therefore, the year-on-year increase in pork prices peaked in June.

Third, vegetable prices declined in the third and fourth quarters of the year.

Vegetables are the necessities of life, the price elasticity of demand is smaller, and the smaller supply and demand gap will cause the price to fluctuate. In the first four months of the previous year and October-November last year, the small supply gap led to the price increase; affected by the high prices, the area of ​​vegetable planted this year expanded, and the supply increased. The wholesale of agricultural products (17.01, -0.08, -0.47%) in March The wholesale prices of prices and food baskets fell sharply. In April, the retail price of vegetables dropped sharply. The price of fresh vegetables fell 11.2% month-on-month, and the small supply surplus caused vegetable prices to drop sharply.

The area for planting vegetables this summer has been determined, and vegetable prices will remain relatively low in the second and third quarters. After the weather turned cold in the fourth quarter, vegetable prices will rise again, but vegetable prices will still fall back under the influence of hikes.

Specifically, the prices of vegetables in May and June last year fell by a large margin, reflected in the hikes, and the hikes in fresh vegetable prices in May decreased by 9 percentage points from the decline in April, and were higher in June than in April. 24 percentage points, the year-on-year increase in May and June of this year will be higher than in April; vegetable prices rose rapidly in the third and fourth quarters of last year, the price of hikes in the second half of the year was negative, the year-on-year increase will remain at the level of January-April.

Fourth, the highest year-on-year increase in food prices in June, followed by a drop in the second half of the year.

In June, food prices and pork prices were higher while vegetable prices were lower. The year-on-year increase in food prices fell slightly. Pork prices rose year-on-year and reached the highest value. Vegetable prices were also higher than the year-on-year increase under the influence of the precipitating factors. The year-on-year increase in food prices reached the peak of the current round of inflation in June. The price of food in July is expected to increase by 13.5% year-on-year in July and then slowly decline, dropping back to 6.2% in December. It was 12.0% in the first half of the year, 9.5% in the second half of the year, and 10.8% for the full year.